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The Predictive Investor

Market Brief - November 26, 2023

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Jason Augustine
Nov 27, 2023
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Welcome to The Predictive Investor Market Brief for November 26th, 2023!

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday. From an investment perspective, there’s a lot to be thankful for this year. The S&P 500 is up about 19% YTD, and our portfolio is up about 15% despite small caps lagging significantly since the start of the year. 

Momentum through year end will be driven by retail sales and interest rates. Early reports indicate Black Friday was a record-setting day for online sales. The PCE report on Thursday will give us an indicator of rates (via inflation).

Weekend Reads 

“Leading Economic Index” Predicts Recession for Early 2024, after Having Predicted a Recession for Late 2022, Early 2023, Mid-2023, and Late 2023: And there’s Still No Recession! (Wolf Street) 

Private equity’s new financial engineering brings risks: NAV loans can buy time but cannot stop the inevitable if businesses have not improved. (Financial Times)

Stocks Are Finally Attracting Investors’ Cash. It’s a Great Sign for the Market. About $23 billion surged into equity funds last week, short of the net nearly $30 billion they received when inflows were at their peak this year, but still one of the highest totals in 2023, according to Bank of America. (Barron’s)

The End of Retirement: Want to keep your house? Support your kids? Stay alive? Never stop working. (The Walrus)

Congrats, Your House Made You Rich. Now Sell It. Lots of baby boomers are going to sell their homes in the years ahead. The trick is to beat the crowd. (The Wall Street Journal)

Underperforming small-caps: A Thanksgiving comeback story?

Source: Edward Jones

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Market Technical Analysis

S&P 500 (SPY)

Stocks were up modestly last week, as expected. SPY is now at resistance, and a modest pullback from here would be expected. While RSI is overbought on the daily chart, it is not yet overbought on the weekly chart. Reaction to Thursday’s PCE report will determine whether that pullback happens now or after taking out the July highs.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Last Week’s Trades

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